← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Brooks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 47% | 41% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.68 | value: +5% |
| Tottenham win | 26% | 31% | 3.71 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham +0.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Liverpool +0.5 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 53% | 1.83 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 47% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟥 | Xavi Simons · Tottenham |
| 56' | ⚽ | Alexander Isak · Liverpool |
| 66' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero · Tottenham |
| 66' | ⚽ | Hugo Ekitiké · Liverpool |
| 76' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Konaté · Liverpool |
| 83' | 🟨 | Dominik Szoboszlai · Liverpool |
| 83' | ⚽ | Richarlison · Tottenham |
| 85' | 🟨 | Micky van de Ven · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Richarlison · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Bentancur · Tottenham |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Cristian Romero · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟥 | Cristian Romero · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alexis Mac Allister · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 49.00 | 567.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1709.41 | 1849.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.56 | 19.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| league points | 22.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 6.15 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.46 | 0.93 |
| solidity v1 | 0.16 | 1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.12 | 27.00 |
| state index | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 282.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 0.91 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.58 |