← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 44% | 41% | 2.21 | fair |
| Wolves win | 28% | 38% | 3.47 | value: +33% |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | 3.48 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford +0.25 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Wolves +0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 44% | 1.86 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 56% | 2.05 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Sepp van den Berg · Brentford |
| 24' | 🟨 | João Gomes · Wolves |
| 44' | 🟨 | Hwang Hee-chan · Wolves |
| 44' | 🟨 | Michael Kayode · Brentford |
| 63' | ⚽ | Keane Lewis-Potter · Brentford |
| 72' | 🟨 | Rico Henry · Brentford |
| 83' | ⚽ | Keane Lewis-Potter · Brentford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vitaly Janelt · Brentford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 141.00 | 172.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1689.57 | 1872.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.34 | -19.33 |
| eye test v1 | -1.20 | -0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.69 |
| league points | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 6.79 | 5.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 0.13 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | -0.19 |
| solidity v1 | -0.74 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 27.04 | 26.15 |
| state index | -1.30 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 175.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 1.53 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.27 |