← Premier League 2025-26 · Mon, Dec 15, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 54% | 61% | 1.81 | value: +11% |
| Bournemouth win | 23% | 20% | 4.20 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 19% | 4.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Man United −0.75 | 49% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 68% | 1.49 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 32% | 2.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Amad Diallo · Man United |
| 40' | ⚽ | Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth |
| 43' | 🟨 | Diogo Dalot · Man United |
| 43' | 🟨 | Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth |
| 45' | ⚽ | Casemiro · Man United |
| 46' | ⚽ | Evanilson · Bournemouth |
| 50' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Man United |
| 52' | ⚽ | Marcus Tavernier · Bournemouth |
| 76' | 🟨 | Marcos Senesi · Bournemouth |
| 77' | ⚽ | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 78' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 14 |
| 9 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| Adam Smith · Bournemouth |
| 79' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · Man United |
| 84' | ⚽ | Eli Junior Kroupi · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 136.00 | 898.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1731.15 | 1673.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.71 | -39.47 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| league points | 25.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.08 | 0.71 |
| solidity v1 | 1.09 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.65 | 26.05 |
| state index | 0.76 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 304.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.83 | 1.20 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.91 | 1.86 |