← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 43% | 52% | 2.23 | value: +15% |
| West Ham win | 29% | 26% | 3.35 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.57 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| West Ham +0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 52% | 1.81 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 48% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Mateus Fernandes · West Ham |
| 9' | ⚽ (og) | Konstantinos Mavropanos · Aston Villa |
| 24' | ⚽ | Jarrod Bowen · West Ham |
| 38' | 🟨 | Boubacar Kamara · Aston Villa |
| 42' | 🟨 | Matty Cash · Aston Villa |
| 50' | ⚽ | Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa |
| 79' | ⚽ | Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 | El Hadji Malick Diouf · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.56 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 166.00 | 1139.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 1.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1599.35 | 1818.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.91 | 37.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | 1.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| league points | 13.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.60 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.09 | 0.78 |
| solidity v1 | -1.22 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 27.02 | 28.01 |
| state index | -0.04 | 1.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 169.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.63 |