← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 44% | 47% | 2.20 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 28% | 35% | 3.43 | value: +20% |
| Sunderland win | 28% | 18% | 3.61 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Sunderland +0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 54% | 1.95 | value: +6% |
| Under | 50% | 46% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Brian Brobbey · Sunderland |
| 34' | 🟨 | Nordi Mukiele · Sunderland |
| 46' | ⚽ (og) | Nick Woltemade · Sunderland |
| 57' | 🟨 | Sandro Tonali · Newcastle |
| 58' | 🟨 | Reinildo Mandava · Sunderland |
| 86' | 🟨 | Enzo Le Fée · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wilson Isidor · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Malick Thiaw · Newcastle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Willock · Newcastle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 6 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 531.00 | 1504.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1568.88 | 1768.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.31 | 15.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | 1.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| league points | 23.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.80 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 3.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -12.20 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.11 | 1.00 |
| solidity v1 | -1.15 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 25.96 | 26.06 |
| state index | -0.11 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 16.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.93 | 1.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.85 |