← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 36% | 35% | 2.74 | fair |
| Nott'm Forest win | 35% | 37% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham +0 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Nott'm Forest +0 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 48% | 1.92 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 52% | 1.99 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Callum Hudson-Odoi · Nott'm Forest |
| 31' | 🟨 | Nicolò Savona · Nott'm Forest |
| 40' | 🟨 | Archie Gray · Tottenham |
| 50' | ⚽ | Callum Hudson-Odoi · Nott'm Forest |
| 70' | 🟨 | Lucas Bergvall · Tottenham |
| 79' | ⚽ | Ibrahim Sangaré · Nott'm Forest |
| 84' | 🟨 | Pedro Porro · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | City Ground |
| coach days | 104.00 | 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1667.40 | 1726.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.85 | 8.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.66 |
| league points | 15.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 2.84 | 4.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | 0.38 |
| solidity v1 | 0.78 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.42 | 25.57 |
| state index | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 165.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 1.08 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.67 |