← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 48% | 51% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.51 | fair |
| Burnley win | 24% | 25% | 4.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley +0.5 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Fulham +0.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 44% | 1.78 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 56% | 2.14 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Emile Smith Rowe · Fulham |
| 21' | ⚽ | Lesley Ugochukwu · Burnley |
| 31' | ⚽ | Calvin Bassey · Fulham |
| 37' | 🟨 | Joachim Andersen · Fulham |
| 58' | ⚽ | Harry Wilson · Fulham |
| 66' | 🟨 | Josh Cullen · Burnley |
| 82' | 🟨 | Kenny Tete · Fulham |
| 86' | ⚽ | Oliver Sonne · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 134.00 | 1626.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1605.67 | 1634.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.41 | -5.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 47.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| league points | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | 0.21 |
| solidity v1 | -1.15 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.88 | 29.19 |
| state index | -0.72 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 290.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.03 | 1.26 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.94 |