← Premier League 2025-26 · Mon, Dec 8, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 58% | 47% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 27% | 4.20 | value: +13% |
| Wolves win | 19% | 26% | 5.35 | value: +39% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man United +0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Wolves +0.75 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 61% | 1.75 | value: +7% |
| Under | 45% | 39% | 2.17 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 38' | 🟨 | Bryan Mbeumo · Man United |
| 44' | 🟨 | Jørgen Strand Larsen · Wolves |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jean-Ricner Bellegarde · Wolves |
| 46' | 🟨 | Ladislav Krejcí · Wolves |
| 51' | ⚽ | Bryan Mbeumo · Man United |
| 62' | ⚽ | Mason Mount · Man United |
| 81' | 🟨 | Yerson Mosquera · Wolves |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joshua Zirkzee · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 27 |
| 2 | On target | 10 |
| 1 | Corners | 9 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 129.00 | 129.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1502.41 | 1721.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.61 | -5.46 |
| eye test v1 | -1.53 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| league points | 2.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 59.00 |
| rest days | 5.02 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.14 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.00 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | 0.63 |
| solidity v1 | -0.68 | 0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.47 | 26.61 |
| state index | -1.64 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 97.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 1.14 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.72 | 1.29 |