← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 6, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 54% | 49% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 31% | 4.07 | value: +25% |
| Leeds win | 22% | 20% | 4.58 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds +0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Liverpool +0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 58% | 1.79 | value: +3% |
| Under | 46% | 42% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Jayden Bogle · Leeds |
| 26' | 🟨 | Gabriel Gudmundsson · Leeds |
| 45' | 🟨 | Conor Bradley · Liverpool |
| 48' | ⚽ | Hugo Ekitiké · Liverpool |
| 50' | ⚽ | Hugo Ekitiké · Liverpool |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Dominic Calvert-Lewin · Leeds |
| 75' | ⚽ | Anton Stach · Leeds |
| 80' | 🟨 | Virgil van Dijk · Liverpool |
| 80' | ⚽ | Dominik Szoboszlai · Liverpool |
| 89' | 🟨 | Pascal Struijk · Leeds |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leeds | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Elland Road |
| Joe Gomez · Liverpool |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ao Tanaka · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 889.00 | 553.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1639.39 | 1830.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.08 | -61.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| league points | 14.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 2.89 | 2.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | 0.94 |
| solidity v1 | -1.56 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.87 | 27.84 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 99.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.25 | 0.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.55 |