← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 39% | 36% | 2.50 | fair |
| Brentford win | 33% | 37% | 3.00 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.43 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham +0 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Brentford +0 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 45% | 1.91 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 55% | 2.02 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Richarlison · Tottenham |
| 29' | 🟨 | Michael Kayode · Brentford |
| 31' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero · Tottenham |
| 43' | ⚽ | Xavi Simons · Tottenham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kristoffer Ajer · Brentford |
| 47' | 🟨 | Pedro Porro · Tottenham |
| 60' | 🟨 | Kevin Schade · Brentford |
| 72' | 🟨 | Yehor Yarmoliuk · Brentford |
| 77' | 🟨 | Archie Gray · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 4 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| coach days | 35.00 | 158.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1704.52 | 1690.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.13 | 3.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.61 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 64.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| league points | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 3.78 | 2.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | 0.06 |
| solidity v1 | -0.77 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.47 | 26.11 |
| state index | -0.41 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 19.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.64 |