← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 73% | 74% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 21% | 5.75 | value: +20% |
| Burnley win | 10% | 6% | 9.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle −1.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Burnley −1.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 61% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 39% | 2.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle |
| 35' | 🟨 | Kyle Walker · Burnley |
| 43' | 🟥 | Lucas Pires · Burnley |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Anthony Gordon · Newcastle |
| 52' | 🟨 | Valentino Livramento · Newcastle |
| 89' | 🟨 | Josh Laurent · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jacob Ramsey · Newcastle |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Zian Flemming · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 9 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | St. James' Park |
| coach days | 1496.00 | 127.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.39 | 1.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1938.82 | 1786.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.47 | -44.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | -0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.66 |
| league points | 19.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 3.78 | 2.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | -0.24 |
| solidity v1 | -0.56 | -1.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.94 | 27.61 |
| state index | 0.97 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| travel km | — | 137.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 2.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 0.76 |