← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Kavanagh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 46% | 39% | 2.12 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.37 | fair |
| Nott'm Forest win | 25% | 31% | 3.90 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Everton −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Nott'm Forest −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 51% | 1.78 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 49% | 2.13 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Nicolò Savona · Nott'm Forest |
| 2' | ⚽ (og) | Nikola Milenković · Everton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Morato · Nott'm Forest |
| 45' | ⚽ | Thierno Barry · Everton |
| 54' | 🟨 | Nikola Milenković · Nott'm Forest |
| 57' | 🟨 | Thierno Barry · Everton |
| 73' | 🟨 | James Tarkowski · Everton |
| 80' | ⚽ | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall · Everton |
| 84' | 🟨 | Vitaliy Mykolenko · Everton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jake O'Brien · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Nott'm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | Hill Dickinson Stadium |
| coach days | 158.00 | 96.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1672.30 | 1670.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.48 | 44.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.88 | 0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| league points | 21.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 3.81 | 2.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | 0.24 |
| solidity v1 | 0.25 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.62 | 25.69 |
| state index | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| travel km | — | 134.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 1.59 |