← Premier League 2025-26 · Tue, Dec 2, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: T. Bramall
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 52% | 68% | 1.85 | value: +26% ⚠ |
| Draw | 25% | 18% | 3.89 | fair |
| Tottenham win | 23% | 13% | 4.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle −0.5 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Tottenham −0.5 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 62% | 1.72 | value: +7% |
| Under | 43% | 38% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero · Tottenham |
| 56' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Bentancur · Tottenham |
| 71' | ⚽ | Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle |
| 78' | ⚽ | Cristian Romero · Tottenham |
| 86' | 🟨 | Richarlison · Tottenham |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Anthony Gordon · Newcastle |
| 90' | ⚽ | Cristian Romero · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 8 |
| 5 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | St. James' Park |
| coach days | 1492.00 | 31.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1763.10 | 1701.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.35 | -19.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 3.11 | 3.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| solidity v1 | -0.54 | -1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.63 | 25.35 |
| state index | 0.95 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| travel km | — | 388.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.68 | 1.71 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 0.75 |