← Premier League 2025-26 · Tue, Dec 2, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Pawson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 58% | 55% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.20 | fair |
| Fulham win | 19% | 21% | 5.30 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man City +0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Fulham +0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 61% | 1.75 | value: +6% |
| Under | 45% | 39% | 2.17 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 37' | ⚽ | Tijjani Reijnders · Man City |
| 44' | ⚽ | Phil Foden · Man City |
| 45' | ⚽ | Emile Smith Rowe · Fulham |
| 48' | ⚽ | Phil Foden · Man City |
| 54' | ⚽ (og) | Sander Berge · Man City |
| 57' | ⚽ | Alex Iwobi · Fulham |
| 72' | ⚽ | Samuel Chukwueze · Fulham |
| 78' | ⚽ | Samuel Chukwueze · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rayan Cherki · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 1615.00 | 3441.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 3.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1649.04 | 1892.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.25 | -3.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | 1.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.00 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.71 |
| league points | 17.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 2.98 | 3.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.56 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | 1.45 |
| solidity v1 | 0.72 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 28.39 | 25.76 |
| state index | 0.73 | 1.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 260.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 2.17 |