← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 30, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 38% | 46% | 2.55 | value: +16% |
| Chelsea win | 32% | 30% | 3.19 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 24% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea +0.25 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Arsenal +0.25 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 38% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 62% | 2.11 | value: +31% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Martín Zubimendi · Arsenal |
| 11' | 🟨 | Marc Cucurella · Chelsea |
| 13' | 🟨 | Cristhian Mosquera · Arsenal |
| 27' | 🟨 | Riccardo Calafiori · Arsenal |
| 38' | 🟥 | Moisés Caicedo · Chelsea |
| 41' | 🟨 | Piero Hincapié · Arsenal |
| 48' | ⚽ | Trevoh Chalobah · Chelsea |
| 54' | 🟨 | Myles Lewis-Skelly · Arsenal |
| 59' | ⚽ | Mikel Merino · Arsenal |
| 88' | 🟨 | Viktor Gyökeres · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 121.00 | 152.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.12 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| elo | 2004.12 | 2134.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.78 | 18.24 |
| eye test v1 | 1.31 | 1.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.90 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| league points | 23.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 4.85 | 3.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 2.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.53 | 1.11 |
| solidity v1 | 1.82 | 1.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.80 |
| squad age | 24.40 | 25.72 |
| state index | 2.05 | 2.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 9.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.41 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.37 | 2.24 |