← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 30, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 46% | 48% | 2.10 | fair |
| Man United win | 28% | 27% | 3.56 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man United −0.5 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Crystal Palace −0.5 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 57% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 43% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Bryan Mbeumo · Man United |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace |
| 53' | 🟨 | Edward Nketiah · Crystal Palace |
| 54' | ⚽ | Joshua Zirkzee · Man United |
| 63' | ⚽ | Mason Mount · Man United |
| 72' | 🟨 | Luke Shaw · Man United |
| 75' | 🟨 | Marc Guéhi · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 668.00 | 121.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1742.52 | 1713.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.67 | 16.06 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| league points | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | 0.07 |
| solidity v1 | 0.65 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.29 | 25.91 |
| state index | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.38 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 274.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.39 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 1.22 |