← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 42% | 42% | 2.31 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 30% | 28% | 3.29 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.43 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Bournemouth +0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 50% | 1.89 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 50% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Amine Adli · Bournemouth |
| 15' | ⚽ | Tyler Adams · Bournemouth |
| 21' | 🟨 | Omar Alderete · Sunderland |
| 25' | 🟨 | Alex Scott · Bournemouth |
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | Enzo Le Fée · Sunderland |
| 46' | ⚽ | Bertrand Traoré · Sunderland |
| 65' | 🟨 | Trai Hume · Sunderland |
| 69' | ⚽ | Brian Brobbey · Sunderland |
| 86' | 🟨 | Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Romaine Mundle · Sunderland |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 18 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| 🟨 |
| Nordi Mukiele · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Robin Roefs · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcus Tavernier · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | David Brooks · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcos Senesi · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟥 | Lewis Cook · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 516.00 | 882.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1552.54 | 1695.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.05 | -11.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.88 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 51.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.67 |
| league points | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.65 | 0.80 |
| solidity v1 | -0.06 | -1.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.36 | 25.88 |
| state index | 0.23 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 465.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.76 | 1.80 |