← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 23, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 65% | 69% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.47 | value: +6% |
| Tottenham win | 13% | 8% | 7.69 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal −1 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Tottenham −1 | 47% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 37% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 63% | 2.00 | value: +27% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Bentancur · Tottenham |
| 36' | ⚽ | Leandro Trossard · Arsenal |
| 41' | ⚽ | Eberechi Eze · Arsenal |
| 46' | ⚽ | Eberechi Eze · Arsenal |
| 55' | ⚽ | Richarlison · Tottenham |
| 70' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero · Tottenham |
| 76' | ⚽ | Eberechi Eze · Arsenal |
| 87' | 🟨 | Declan Rice · Arsenal |
| 87' | 🟨 | Pedro Porro · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 3 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.55 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 145.00 | 22.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.72 | 4.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.42 |
| elo | 2117.89 | 1887.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.52 | 12.08 |
| eye test v1 | 1.19 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.87 | 0.79 |
| league points | 26.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 15.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.36 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.14 | -0.12 |
| solidity v1 | 2.13 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.84 | 25.85 |
| state index | 2.17 | 0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | 0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| travel km | — | 6.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.49 | 1.61 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.85 | 0.80 |