← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 42% | 42% | 2.29 | fair |
| Leeds win | 29% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds +0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Aston Villa +0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 57% | 1.77 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 43% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Lukas Nmecha · Leeds |
| 41' | 🟨 | Jayden Bogle · Leeds |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ao Tanaka · Leeds |
| 48' | ⚽ | Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa |
| 53' | 🟨 | John McGinn · Aston Villa |
| 63' | 🟨 | Ethan Ampadu · Leeds |
| 74' | 🟨 | Pascal Struijk · Leeds |
| 75' | ⚽ | Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa |
| 89' | 🟨 | Wilfried Gnonto · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 16 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leeds | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Elland Road |
| coach days | 876.00 | 1118.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1627.56 | 1773.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.87 | 10.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.74 |
| league points | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.58 | 0.93 |
| solidity v1 | -0.37 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.62 | 28.49 |
| state index | -0.27 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | 0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 142.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.56 |