← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 54% | 53% | 1.82 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.90 | fair |
| Wolves win | 21% | 26% | 4.53 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves +0.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Crystal Palace +0.75 | 48% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 60% | 1.96 | value: +17% |
| Under | 50% | 40% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Marc Guéhi · Crystal Palace |
| 50' | 🟨 | Tolu Arokodare · Wolves |
| 59' | 🟨 | Yéremy Pino · Crystal Palace |
| 63' | ⚽ | Daniel Muñoz · Crystal Palace |
| 66' | 🟨 | Daniel Muñoz · Crystal Palace |
| 69' | ⚽ | Yéremy Pino · Crystal Palace |
| 77' | 🟨 | João Gomes · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 113.00 | 660.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1520.82 | 1742.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.29 | 1.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| league points | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 13.79 | 13.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.18 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | -0.46 |
| solidity v1 | -0.92 | 1.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.37 | 26.69 |
| state index | -1.39 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | -0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 192.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 0.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 1.48 |