← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Bramall
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 57% | 54% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 30% | 4.10 | value: +24% |
| West Ham win | 19% | 16% | 5.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| West Ham −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 58% | 1.69 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 42% | 2.27 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · West Ham |
| 34' | 🟨 | David Brooks · Bournemouth |
| 34' | 🟨 | Jean-Clair Todibo · West Ham |
| 35' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · West Ham |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Marcus Tavernier · Bournemouth |
| 81' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · Bournemouth |
| 83' | 🟨 | Adrien Truffert · Bournemouth |
| 83' | 🟨 | Aaron Wan-Bissaka · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcos Senesi · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 28 | Shots | 5 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 875.00 | 144.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1699.73 | 1592.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.41 | 7.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.69 |
| league points | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 13.04 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | -0.32 |
| solidity v1 | -1.38 | -0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.31 | 26.81 |
| state index | 0.44 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 156.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.92 | 1.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.25 |