← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 9, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Kavanagh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 51% | 48% | 1.94 | fair |
| Liverpool win | 25% | 24% | 3.86 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 28% | 4.00 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man City −0.5 | 52% | 1.94 |
| Liverpool −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 74% | 1.50 | value: +11% |
| Under | 36% | 26% | 2.69 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Nico González · Man City |
| 29' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 36' | 🟨 | Alexis Mac Allister · Liverpool |
| 41' | 🟨 | Bernardo Silva · Man City |
| 45' | ⚽ | Nico González · Man City |
| 52' | 🟨 | Conor Bradley · Liverpool |
| 63' | ⚽ | Jérémy Doku · Man City |
| 89' | 🟨 | Curtis Jones · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dominik Szoboszlai · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 3418.00 | 526.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.75 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1908.61 | 1891.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.31 | 5.12 |
| eye test v1 | 1.42 | 1.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.72 |
| league points | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.40 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 3.85 | 4.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.72 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.90 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.38 | 1.47 |
| solidity v1 | 1.05 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.60 |
| squad age | 25.28 | 26.75 |
| state index | 1.76 | 0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 50.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 1.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.82 | 2.40 |