← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest win | 43% | 41% | 2.23 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 23% | 3.30 | fair |
| Leeds win | 26% | 36% | 3.62 | value: +30% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Leeds −0.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 48% | 1.59 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 52% | 2.44 | value: +28% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Lukas Nmecha · Leeds |
| 15' | ⚽ | Ibrahim Sangaré · Nott'm Forest |
| 33' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Sangaré · Nott'm Forest |
| 41' | 🟨 | Murillo · Nott'm Forest |
| 68' | ⚽ | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 71' | 🟨 | Sean Longstaff · Leeds |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Elliot Anderson · Nott'm Forest |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | City Ground |
| coach days | 69.00 | 862.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1808.67 | 1825.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.37 | -30.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.00 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| league points | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 2.84 | 7.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | 0.60 |
| solidity v1 | 0.52 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.90 | 26.74 |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 97.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.81 | 1.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.63 |