← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brooks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 41% | 49% | 2.37 | value: +16% |
| Bournemouth win | 30% | 25% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Aston Villa −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 53% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 47% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa |
| 23' | 🟨 | Boubacar Kamara · Aston Villa |
| 27' | 🟨 | Álex Jiménez · Bournemouth |
| 28' | ⚽ | Emiliano Buendía · Aston Villa |
| 38' | 🟨 | Adrien Truffert · Bournemouth |
| 40' | ⚽ | Amadou Onana · Aston Villa |
| 77' | ⚽ | Ross Barkley · Aston Villa |
| 82' | ⚽ | Donyell Malen · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 9 |
| 8 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| coach days | 1104.00 | 862.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1760.21 | 1712.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.38 | 17.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.76 |
| league points | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 2.75 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.78 | 0.29 |
| solidity v1 | 0.73 | -1.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.78 | 25.25 |
| state index | 0.83 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.97 | 0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 197.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.05 |