← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 8, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Pawson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 66% | 66% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.50 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 12% | 13% | 8.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal +1 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Sunderland +1 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 53% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 47% | 2.20 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Martín Zubimendi · Arsenal |
| 36' | ⚽ | Daniel Ballard · Sunderland |
| 45' | 🟨 | Granit Xhaka · Sunderland |
| 54' | ⚽ | Bukayo Saka · Arsenal |
| 72' | 🟨 | Reinildo Mandava · Sunderland |
| 74' | ⚽ | Leandro Trossard · Arsenal |
| 90' | ⚽ | Brian Brobbey · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 495.00 | 130.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 3.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1551.57 | 1941.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 42.10 | 35.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | 1.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 49.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | — |
| league points | 18.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 4.90 | 3.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | 1.11 |
| solidity v1 | 0.17 | 2.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 0.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 26.50 | 26.43 |
| state index | 0.47 | 2.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 383.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 0.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.84 |