← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 51% | 45% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.66 | fair |
| Burnley win | 22% | 33% | 4.44 | value: +49% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Burnley −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 60% | 1.91 | value: +14% |
| Over | 49% | 40% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Lucas Paquetá · West Ham |
| 35' | ⚽ | Zian Flemming · Burnley |
| 44' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · West Ham |
| 55' | 🟨 | Zian Flemming · Burnley |
| 77' | ⚽ | Tomáš Souček · West Ham |
| 86' | 🟨 | Kyle Walker · Burnley |
| 87' | ⚽ | Kyle Walker-Peters · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mateus Fernandes · West Ham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Josh Cullen · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 130.00 | 99.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| elo | 1582.43 | 1649.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.35 | 3.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | -0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| league points | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 6.04 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -10.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 6.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | -0.83 |
| solidity v1 | -0.61 | -1.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.73 | 27.93 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| travel km | — | 293.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 2.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 0.62 |