← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 8, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 40% | 50% | 2.43 | value: +22% |
| Tottenham win | 32% | 32% | 3.01 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 18% | 3.59 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham +0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Man United +0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 57% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 43% | 2.21 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Brennan Johnson · Tottenham |
| 32' | ⚽ | Bryan Mbeumo · Man United |
| 34' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero · Tottenham |
| 75' | 🟨 | João Palhinha · Tottenham |
| 78' | 🟨 | Patrick Dorgu · Man United |
| 84' | ⚽ | Mathys Tel · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kevin Danso · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Richarlison · Tottenham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Richarlison · Tottenham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Matthijs de Ligt · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| coach days | 7.00 | 99.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.36 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1889.11 | 1890.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.44 | 23.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | 0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 3.69 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | 0.15 |
| solidity v1 | -0.07 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 26.11 | 26.32 |
| state index | 0.80 | 0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 255.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.71 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.79 | 1.53 |