← Premier League 2025-26 · Mon, Nov 3, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Bramall
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 40% | 31% | 2.42 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.20 | value: +4% |
| Sunderland win | 29% | 36% | 3.32 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland +0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Everton +0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 61% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 39% | 2.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Iliman Ndiaye · Everton |
| 17' | 🟨 | Noah Sadiki · Sunderland |
| 18' | 🟨 | Nordi Mukiele · Sunderland |
| 32' | 🟨 | Thierno Barry · Everton |
| 46' | ⚽ | Granit Xhaka · Sunderland |
| 54' | 🟨 | Trai Hume · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carlos Alcaraz · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 490.00 | 125.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1709.17 | 1856.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 48.83 | -23.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.88 | 0.71 |
| league points | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.40 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 9.25 | 8.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | -0.06 |
| solidity v1 | 0.18 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.21 | 28.82 |
| state index | 0.84 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.04 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 193.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.54 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.20 |