← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 2, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 67% | 67% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 19% | 5.35 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 14% | 15% | 7.00 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man City −1.25 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Bournemouth −1.25 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 61% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 39% | 2.71 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 25' | ⚽ | Tyler Adams · Bournemouth |
| 26' | 🟨 | Gianluigi Donnarumma · Man City |
| 33' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 45' | 🟨 | Phil Foden · Man City |
| 60' | ⚽ | Nico O'Reilly · Man City |
| 65' | 🟨 | Adrien Truffert · Bournemouth |
| 87' | 🟨 | Justin Kluivert · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 3411.00 | 855.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.66 | 1.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1890.29 | 1719.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.44 | 23.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.86 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| league points | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.80 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.80 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.73 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.66 | 0.22 |
| solidity v1 | 1.52 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.87 | 24.29 |
| state index | 1.36 | 0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.41 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 306.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.53 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 1.00 |