← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 58% | 43% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 32% | 4.22 | value: +34% |
| West Ham win | 19% | 25% | 5.17 | value: +28% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham +1 | 55% | 1.79 |
| Newcastle +1 | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 58% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 42% | 2.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Jacob Murphy · Newcastle |
| 30' | 🟨 | Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle |
| 35' | ⚽ | Lucas Paquetá · West Ham |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Sven Botman · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Paquetá · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jacob Ramsey · Newcastle |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tomáš Souček · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 5 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 124.00 | 1462.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1561.59 | 1764.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.30 | 35.91 |
| eye test v1 | -1.32 | 1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.66 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| league points | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.44 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | 0.63 |
| solidity v1 | -0.99 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 27.17 | 28.23 |
| state index | -0.82 | 1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 398.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.93 | 1.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.67 | 2.06 |