← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 1, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 57% | 54% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 29% | 4.34 | value: +26% |
| Aston Villa win | 21% | 17% | 4.92 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa −1 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Liverpool −1 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 60% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 40% | 2.52 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 54' | 🟨 | Virgil van Dijk · Liverpool |
| 57' | 🟨 | Matty Cash · Aston Villa |
| 58' | ⚽ | Ryan Gravenberch · Liverpool |
| 73' | 🟨 | Amadou Onana · Aston Villa |
| 80' | 🟨 | Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa |
| 87' | 🟨 | Dominik Szoboszlai · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 518.00 | 1096.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1873.00 | 1760.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.13 | 35.91 |
| eye test v1 | 1.21 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.66 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.80 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.76 |
| league points | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 6.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.74 | 0.73 |
| solidity v1 | -0.19 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.32 | 28.20 |
| state index | 0.75 | 0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.80 | 1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 125.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 0.93 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.41 | 1.15 |