← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brooks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 54% | 48% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.80 | value: +6% |
| Wolves win | 20% | 24% | 4.92 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Fulham −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 49% | 2.00 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 51% | 2.08 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Ryan Sessegnon · Fulham |
| 36' | 🟥 | Emmanuel Agbadou · Wolves |
| 40' | 🟨 | Toti Gomes · Wolves |
| 62' | ⚽ | Harry Wilson · Fulham |
| 74' | 🟨 | Yerson Mosquera · Wolves |
| 75' | ⚽ (og) | Yerson Mosquera · Fulham |
| 84' | 🟨 | Santiago Bueno · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sander Berge · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 1584.00 | 92.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1630.63 | 1535.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.63 | -27.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.80 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.62 |
| league points | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 0.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | 0.35 |
| solidity v1 | -0.40 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.86 | 26.36 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 180.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 0.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 1.32 |