← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 25, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 52% | 43% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 32% | 4.00 | value: +30% |
| Brentford win | 24% | 25% | 4.27 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool +0.5 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Brentford +0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 63% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 37% | 2.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Dango Ouattara · Brentford |
| 33' | 🟨 | Miloš Kerkez · Liverpool |
| 45' | ⚽ | Kevin Schade · Brentford |
| 45' | ⚽ | Miloš Kerkez · Liverpool |
| 57' | 🟨 | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Igor Thiago · Brentford |
| 76' | 🟨 | Kevin Schade · Brentford |
| 89' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Igor Thiago · Brentford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Keane Lewis-Potter · Brentford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 18 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brentford | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.86 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Brentford Community Stadium |
| coach days | 116.00 | 511.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 3.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1673.34 | 1887.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.34 | -33.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | 1.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.40 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| league points | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 63.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | 1.84 |
| solidity v1 | 0.34 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.35 | 26.49 |
| state index | 0.47 | 0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | 0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 281.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 2.38 |