← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 25, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 48% | 47% | 2.03 | fair |
| Brighton win | 27% | 25% | 3.57 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 29% | 3.90 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Man United −0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 58% | 1.55 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 42% | 2.63 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · Man United |
| 34' | ⚽ | Casemiro · Man United |
| 41' | 🟨 | Carlos Baleba · Brighton |
| 61' | ⚽ | Bryan Mbeumo · Man United |
| 72' | 🟨 | Patrick Dorgu · Man United |
| 74' | ⚽ | Danny Welbeck · Brighton |
| 81' | 🟨 | Benjamin Šeško · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ferdi Kadıoğlu · Brighton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Charalampos Kostoulas · Brighton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Bryan Mbeumo · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 4 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 85.00 | 511.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 3.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1877.17 | 1920.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.15 | 16.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 47.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.59 |
| league points | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 6.04 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | -0.03 |
| solidity v1 | -0.60 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.13 | 25.79 |
| state index | 1.10 | 1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 326.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 1.21 |