← Premier League 2025-26 · Fri, Oct 24, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 53% | 59% | 1.81 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.71 | fair |
| West Ham win | 21% | 16% | 4.79 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham −0.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Leeds −0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 46% | 1.87 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 54% | 2.05 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Brenden Aaronson · Leeds |
| 15' | ⚽ | Joe Rodon · Leeds |
| 40' | 🟨 | Crysencio Summerville · West Ham |
| 55' | 🟨 | Lucas Paquetá · West Ham |
| 76' | 🟨 | Ilia Gruev · Leeds |
| 84' | 🟨 | Lucas Perri · Leeds |
| 90' | 🟨 | James Justin · Leeds |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jean-Clair Todibo · West Ham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mateus Fernandes · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leeds | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.12 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Elland Road |
| coach days | 846.00 | 115.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.11 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1646.25 | 1567.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.81 | -37.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | -1.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.67 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.30 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.45 | -0.70 |
| solidity v1 | 0.51 | -1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 27.61 | 26.88 |
| state index | 0.07 | -0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 271.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 0.66 |