← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 44% | 37% | 2.24 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 40% | 3.41 | value: +35% |
| Bournemouth win | 28% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Bournemouth −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 59% | 1.87 | value: +10% |
| Under | 48% | 41% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth |
| 7' | ⚽ | Eli Junior Kroupi · Bournemouth |
| 38' | ⚽ | Eli Junior Kroupi · Bournemouth |
| 40' | 🟨 | Tyler Adams · Bournemouth |
| 51' | 🟨 | Marcos Senesi · Bournemouth |
| 62' | 🟨 | Yéremy Pino · Crystal Palace |
| 64' | ⚽ | Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace |
| 69' | ⚽ | Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace |
| 89' | ⚽ | Ryan Christie · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Christie · Bournemouth |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 625.00 | 840.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1938.22 | 1913.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.48 | 30.05 |
| eye test v1 | 1.22 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| league points | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 13.04 | 14.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | 0.11 |
| solidity v1 | 0.75 | 1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.19 | 25.37 |
| state index | 1.22 | 1.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.01 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 142.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 0.73 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.10 | 1.09 |