← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 18, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: C. Kavanagh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 42% | 36% | 2.31 | fair |
| Nott'm Forest win | 30% | 34% | 3.24 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest +0.25 | 52% | 1.93 |
| Chelsea +0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 61% | 1.88 | value: +14% |
| Under | 48% | 39% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Morato · Nott'm Forest |
| 49' | ⚽ | Josh Acheampong · Chelsea |
| 52' | ⚽ | Pedro Neto · Chelsea |
| 54' | 🟨 | Malo Gusto · Chelsea |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Sangaré · Nott'm Forest |
| 84' | ⚽ | Reece James · Chelsea |
| 87' | 🟨 | Malo Gusto · Chelsea |
| 87' | 🟥 | Malo Gusto · Chelsea |
| 89' | 🟨 | Estêvão · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Robert Sánchez · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | City Ground |
| coach days | 47.00 | 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1625.88 | 1810.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.00 | -20.35 |
| eye test v1 | 1.18 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.56 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 45.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.76 |
| league points | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 12.94 | 13.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.06 | 0.46 |
| solidity v1 | -0.75 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.84 | 23.97 |
| state index | -0.57 | 0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | 1.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 174.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.68 | 0.98 |