← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 5, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 47% | 33% | 2.10 | fair |
| Wolves win | 27% | 48% | 3.82 | value: +82% ⚠ |
| Draw | 26% | 20% | 3.68 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton +0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Wolves +0.25 | 46% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 53% | 1.89 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 47% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Carlos Baleba · Brighton |
| 21' | ⚽ (og) | Bart Verbruggen · Wolves |
| 36' | 🟨 | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 43' | 🟨 | Mats Wieffer · Brighton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Danny Welbeck · Brighton |
| 51' | 🟨 | Santiago Bueno · Wolves |
| 86' | ⚽ | Jan Paul van Hecke · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | André · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 65.00 | 491.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1555.10 | 1714.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.13 | 10.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| league points | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 7.75 | 7.96 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.17 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | 0.12 |
| solidity v1 | 0.15 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.18 | 25.33 |
| state index | -0.86 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 238.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.79 |