← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 5, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 37% | 39% | 2.61 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 33% | 34% | 2.99 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Everton +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Crystal Palace +0 | 48% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 58% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 42% | 2.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Daniel Muñoz · Crystal Palace |
| 68' | 🟨 | James Garner · Everton |
| 68' | 🟨 | Yéremy Pino · Crystal Palace |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Iliman Ndiaye · Everton |
| 82' | 🟨 | Adam Wharton · Crystal Palace |
| 87' | 🟨 | Daniel Muñoz · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iliman Ndiaye · Everton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jack Grealish · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Hill Dickinson Stadium |
| coach days | 96.00 | 612.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1665.76 | 1755.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.22 | 43.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.73 |
| league points | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 5.75 | 2.84 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | 0.49 |
| solidity v1 | 0.61 | 1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 28.82 | 26.52 |
| state index | 0.54 | 1.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 299.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 0.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 2.32 |