← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 5, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Kitchen
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 60% | 61% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.10 | fair |
| Burnley win | 16% | 16% | 6.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley −1 | 53% | 1.90 |
| Aston Villa −1 | 47% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 52% | 1.95 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 48% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Lyle Foster · Burnley |
| 25' | ⚽ | Donyell Malen · Aston Villa |
| 53' | 🟨 | Lucas Digne · Aston Villa |
| 63' | ⚽ | Donyell Malen · Aston Villa |
| 78' | ⚽ | Lesley Ugochukwu · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Emiliano Martínez · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 | Emiliano Buendía · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| coach days | 1069.00 | 65.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.29 |
| elo | 1746.30 | 1639.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.22 | -13.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | -1.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 67.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| league points | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 33.40 |
| rest days | 2.75 | 7.96 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.67 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -12.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | -1.54 |
| solidity v1 | 0.13 | -1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 27.68 | 27.77 |
| state index | 0.95 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.18 | -0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 144.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 2.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 0.72 |