← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 60% | 64% | 1.62 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.41 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 18% | 14% | 5.78 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man United −0.75 | 55% | 1.75 |
| Sunderland −0.75 | 45% | 2.24 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 59% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 41% | 2.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Mason Mount · Man United |
| 29' | 🟨 | Omar Alderete · Sunderland |
| 31' | ⚽ | Benjamin Šeško · Man United |
| 35' | 🟨 | Noah Sadiki · Sunderland |
| 57' | 🟨 | Bertrand Traoré · Sunderland |
| 76' | 🟨 | Granit Xhaka · Sunderland |
| 81' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 64.00 | 460.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1854.37 | 1681.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.73 | 37.42 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | -0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.87 |
| league points | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.90 | -0.32 |
| solidity v1 | -0.51 | 0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 26.30 | 25.42 |
| state index | 0.68 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 171.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.14 | 1.07 |