← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: T. Bramall
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 37% | 30% | 2.65 | fair |
| Leeds win | 35% | 42% | 2.80 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.45 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham +0 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Leeds +0 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 51% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 49% | 1.97 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Mohammed Kudus · Tottenham |
| 23' | ⚽ | Mathys Tel · Tottenham |
| 34' | ⚽ | Noah Okafor · Leeds |
| 41' | 🟨 | João Palhinha · Tottenham |
| 52' | 🟨 | Ethan Ampadu · Leeds |
| 57' | ⚽ | Mohammed Kudus · Tottenham |
| 64' | 🟨 | Noah Okafor · Leeds |
| 64' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leeds | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Elland Road |
| coach days | 826.00 | 33.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.08 | 4.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1670.43 | 1708.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.50 | 18.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.20 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.79 |
| league points | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 3.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.64 | 0.54 |
| solidity v1 | -0.10 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.29 | 25.60 |
| state index | 0.22 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | 1.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| travel km | — | 262.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 1.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.82 |