← Premier League 2025-26 · Mon, Sep 29, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 58% | 54% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.90 | fair |
| West Ham win | 17% | 21% | 5.50 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Everton −0.75 | 53% | 1.89 |
| West Ham −0.75 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 56% | 2.00 | value: +13% |
| Under | 50% | 44% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Michael Keane · Everton |
| 24' | 🟨 | James Tarkowski · Everton |
| 33' | 🟨 | Kyle Walker-Peters · West Ham |
| 48' | 🟨 | Soungoutou Magassa · West Ham |
| 64' | 🟨 | Max Kilman · West Ham |
| 65' | ⚽ | Jarrod Bowen · West Ham |
| 82' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Mavropanos · West Ham |
| 87' | 🟨 | Vitaliy Mykolenko · Everton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Hill Dickinson Stadium |
| coach days | 90.00 | 90.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 3.24 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1669.80 | 1581.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.20 | -30.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.68 |
| league points | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 9.31 | 9.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | -0.03 |
| solidity v1 | 0.41 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.64 | 27.58 |
| state index | 0.46 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 292.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.56 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 0.99 |