← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 28, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 42% | 61% | 2.38 | value: +44% ⚠ |
| Draw | 29% | 17% | 3.30 | fair |
| Fulham win | 29% | 23% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham −0.25 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Aston Villa −0.25 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 54% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 46% | 2.16 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Raúl Jiménez · Fulham |
| 22' | 🟨 | Joshua King · Fulham |
| 34' | 🟨 | Saša Lukić · Fulham |
| 37' | ⚽ | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 45' | 🟨 | John McGinn · Aston Villa |
| 45' | 🟨 | Harry Wilson · Fulham |
| 49' | ⚽ | John McGinn · Aston Villa |
| 51' | ⚽ | Emiliano Buendía · Aston Villa |
| 55' | 🟨 | Calvin Bassey · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| coach days | 1062.00 | 1550.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.34 | 3.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1714.74 | 1661.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.18 | 19.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| league points | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 2.75 | 7.75 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.72 | 0.22 |
| solidity v1 | -0.02 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.62 | 27.62 |
| state index | 0.22 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.25 | 0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 161.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.08 |