← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Harrington
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest win | 55% | 54% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.82 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 20% | 25% | 4.79 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland −0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Nott'm Forest −0.75 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 58% | 1.93 | value: +12% |
| Over | 49% | 42% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Noah Sadiki · Sunderland |
| 31' | 🟨 | Arthur Masuaku · Sunderland |
| 36' | 🟨 | Nicolás Domínguez · Nott'm Forest |
| 38' | 🟨 | Nikola Milenković · Nott'm Forest |
| 38' | ⚽ | Omar Alderete · Sunderland |
| 49' | 🟨 | Neco Williams · Nott'm Forest |
| 82' | 🟨 | Elliot Anderson · Nott'm Forest |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 6 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | City Ground |
| coach days | 26.00 | 453.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1861.86 | 1665.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.87 | 44.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | -0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.82 |
| league points | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 2.90 | 6.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | -0.47 |
| solidity v1 | -0.46 | 0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.35 | 25.35 |
| state index | 0.03 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.81 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 220.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.06 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 0.89 |