← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 81% | 83% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 14% | 7.50 | value: +6% |
| Burnley win | 6% | 3% | 15.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley −2 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Man City −2 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 58% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 42% | 2.66 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ (og) | Maxime Estève · Man City |
| 27' | 🟨 | Quilindschy Hartman · Burnley |
| 30' | 🟨 | Kyle Walker · Burnley |
| 38' | ⚽ | Jaidon Anthony · Burnley |
| 61' | ⚽ | Matheus Nunes · Man City |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jaidon Anthony · Burnley |
| 65' | ⚽ (og) | Maxime Estève · Man City |
| 83' | 🟨 | Phil Foden · Man City |
| 90' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 90' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 5 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 3375.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.09 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1873.87 | 1645.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.98 | -21.76 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | -1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 69.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| league points | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 33.80 |
| rest days | 5.94 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -10.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.98 | -1.55 |
| solidity v1 | 0.48 | -1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.02 | 27.73 |
| state index | 0.93 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.78 | -1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 34.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.81 | 0.82 |