← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 49% | 47% | 2.00 | fair |
| Brighton win | 26% | 20% | 4.00 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 33% | 3.91 | value: +29% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton −0.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
| Chelsea −0.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 63% | 1.68 | value: +6% |
| Under | 43% | 37% | 2.28 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Joël Veltman · Brighton |
| 24' | ⚽ | Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
| 42' | 🟨 | Marc Cucurella · Chelsea |
| 53' | 🟥 | Trevoh Chalobah · Chelsea |
| 64' | 🟨 | Mats Wieffer · Brighton |
| 66' | 🟨 | Reece James · Chelsea |
| 77' | ⚽ | Danny Welbeck · Brighton |
| 89' | 🟨 | Benoît Badiashile · Chelsea |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jan Paul van Hecke · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Danny Welbeck · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Maxim De Cuyper · Brighton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Danny Welbeck · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 57.00 | 483.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 3.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1973.65 | 1892.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.63 | -14.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.50 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.62 |
| league points | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.00 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | — |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.03 | 0.18 |
| solidity v1 | -0.07 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.65 | 26.15 |
| state index | 1.15 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.16 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 69.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 1.63 |