← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: D. England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 63% | 76% | 1.54 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 22% | 15% | 4.40 | fair |
| Everton win | 15% | 9% | 6.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool −1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Everton −1 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 63% | 1.73 | value: +9% |
| Under | 45% | 37% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Ryan Gravenberch · Liverpool |
| 28' | 🟨 | Iliman Ndiaye · Everton |
| 29' | ⚽ | Hugo Ekitiké · Liverpool |
| 58' | ⚽ | Idrissa Gana Gueye · Everton |
| 69' | 🟨 | Dominik Szoboszlai · Liverpool |
| 78' | 🟨 | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall · Everton |
| 82' | 🟨 | Florian Wirtz · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Grealish · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 476.00 | 81.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.81 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1917.67 | 1672.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.66 | 29.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.82 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.80 |
| league points | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 2.69 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.30 | -0.24 |
| solidity v1 | 1.25 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.49 | 28.51 |
| state index | 1.57 | 0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.96 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 0.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.78 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 1.51 |