← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 13, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 52% | 59% | 1.88 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.86 | fair |
| Brentford win | 23% | 17% | 4.21 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Brentford +0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 56% | 1.83 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 44% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Igor Thiago · Brentford |
| 30' | 🟨 | Jorrel Hato · Chelsea |
| 35' | ⚽ | Kevin Schade · Brentford |
| 61' | ⚽ | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 64' | 🟨 | Yehor Yarmoliuk · Brentford |
| 82' | 🟨 | Ethan Pinnock · Brentford |
| 85' | ⚽ | Moisés Caicedo · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tyrique George · Chelsea |
| 90' | ⚽ | Fabio Carvalho · Brentford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brentford | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Brentford Community Stadium |
| coach days | 74.00 | 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1660.00 | 1833.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.54 | 38.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.00 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.79 |
| league points | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 14.21 | 14.31 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | 1.23 |
| solidity v1 | -0.17 | 1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 24.79 | 24.40 |
| state index | 0.06 | 1.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | 1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 6.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 0.94 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 1.82 |