← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 40% | 43% | 2.47 | value: +7% |
| Brighton win | 33% | 27% | 2.94 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.54 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth +0 | 55% | 1.79 |
| Brighton +0 | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 58% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 42% | 2.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Alex Scott · Bournemouth |
| 30' | 🟨 | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 31' | 🟨 | David Brooks · Bournemouth |
| 36' | 🟨 | Marcos Senesi · Bournemouth |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tyler Adams · Bournemouth |
| 48' | ⚽ | Kaoru Mitoma · Brighton |
| 57' | 🟨 | Georginio Rutter · Brighton |
| 61' | ⚽ (pen) | Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth |
| 63' | 🟨 | James Milner · Brighton |
| 73' | 🟨 | Carlos Baleba · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| Álex Jiménez · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 805.00 | 469.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1894.49 | 1903.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.41 | 28.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | 1.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.62 |
| league points | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.04 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | 1.04 |
| solidity v1 | 0.67 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 25.92 | 26.49 |
| state index | 1.18 | 1.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 124.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 1.69 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 2.13 |